black swan swan (the black theory) describes an event that shocked the observer, after the event, people tend to rationalize it in an inappropriate way.

Y-Combinator founder Paul Graham a few days ago, a Black Farming in the North American venture circle set off a wave of controversy in. This article is mainly in the PG YC said, according to their own experience, nearly 400 companies in their 7 years of investment, so far the total selling all value has reached 10 billion U.S. dollars. It sounds great, but only 7 billion 500 million of the Dropbox and Airbnb contributed two.

so PG believes that venture capital is more investment in good company, as it is found that a few grains of rare diamonds in the sand. And these really can become the base of the company, often at the beginning it sounds a bit stupid idea, but it turned out to be a good idea idea. This kind of question seems to be very superficial, or the probability of success is low, so there are not many people want to compete with you. But once you really successful, due to the lack of the opponent, you will be able to dominate the entire market. From Google, Facebook, Dropbox to Airbnb success story, in fact, are similar concepts.

so PG believes that YC should be more conscious of the risk, to absorb some want to do "sounds like a bad idea," the team, in order to give themselves the opportunity to catch a few black swans.

PG this statement immediately aroused another super angel, 500 Startups founder Dave McClure’s big rebound, wrote Screw the Black Swans: Ichiro is our role model, not Barry Bonds. (to his black swan: Suzuki Ichiro is our idol, rather than Berry · bonds.

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Dave wrote in the article, YC is the Yankees, Barry Bonds and A-Rod which is specifically looking for a big stick, then let out of their home run hard. On the contrary, the 500 is the use of a magic ball team philosophy, looking for is like Suzuki Ichiro this high on base percentage, whether hits or four bad, is trying to squeeze onto the first player.

Dave further compared YC with 500 different, he thinks YC is often looking for skilled Hackers (Engineer) team, while 500 are in any case, preference workaholic touchdown Hustlers (action team). YC most companies come from Silicon Valley or the United States